From a strategic point of view, Operation Black Buck demonstrated to Argentina that Britain had both the will and the capability to perform long-range air strikes in the South Atlantic. It also raised the possibility of air-raids on the Argentine mainland. Furthermore, the raids provided an powerful boost to British morale and domestic opinion.

In terms of military effects, the success of the raids is less clear.

On the positive side:

Black Buck One did succeed in its goal of cratering the runway at Port Stanley, and subsequent missions did cause further damage to Argentine forces.
No Argentine fast jets operated out of Port Stanley during the war.
The potential threat to the Argentine mainland did force the Argentine Air Force (FAA) to deploy some aircraft against this contingency.

But, on the other hand:

Argentine aircraft did operate from Port Stanley throughout the war.
The Argentines placed earth mounds on the runway to convince the British that it was more seriously damaged than was in fact the case.
Some people argue that due to the shortness of the runway, the Argentines would not have operated fast jets (such as the Mirage III) from Port Stanley, anyway.

In summary, it is probably fair to say that Black Buck did make an important, but not decisive by itself, contribution to British victory in the Falklands War. The decisive operation of the war, was the British amphibious landing in the Falkland Islands, which eventually led to the recapture of Port Stanley on June 14th. Hostilities ended on June 20th, when the last Argentine garrison (on the South Sandwich Islands) surrendered.

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